IMD to predict progress of monsoon towards north and northeast tomorrow

Written By kom nampultig on Minggu, 08 Juni 2014 | 08.20

NEW DELHI: With the monsoon gaining momentum in Kerala brining rains in most parts of the state, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will on Monday forecast its progress towards further north and northeast in the next two month. The progress will decide the fate of Kharif (summer) crops which primarily depend on rains during June-August.

The announcement will set in motion the government's contingency plan for farmers if the forecast paints a grim scenario.

"Though the monsoon progresses well in Kerala in the past 48 hours, we are waiting for the IMD's second forecast for the progress of the monsoon before kicking off our action on the ground to protect the farmers from below average rainfall scenario", said an official.

The IMD's long range forecast for the southwest monsoon will be made public by the minister of state for earth science Jitendra Singh on Monday.

Apprehending the El Nino effect on progress of monsoon, the Centre has, meanwhile, directed states to be fully geared up to meet any eventuality due to erratic rains in June-July.

Amid indications of below average rainfall, a contingency plan has already been prepared for around 570 districts. Action at the local level will be fine-tuned after the forecast on Monday.

"Karnataka, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra — having higher frequency of drought — have specifically been asked to be prepared with sufficient seed of short-duration varieties of kharif crops", said an official.

The agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh has, himself, been monitoring the day-to-day preparedness in his ministry. He will call meeting of state officials to review the contingency plan later this week.

The central plan includes close monitoring of the situation, keeping ready sufficient quantities of short-duration varieties of major Kharif crops, issuing location-specific advisories and involving research institutes, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and extension machinery of states for reaching out to farmers across the country on time.

Taking into account the monsoon-depressing El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific ocean, the IMD had in April end predicted a 'below normal' monsoon. It had predicted that the rains were likely to be 95% of the long term average.

The El Nino, which refers to the warming of the central and east Pacific and cooling of the West, occurs every four to 12 years. It had last hit India's monsoon in 2009, leading to worst drought in the country in nearly four decades.

As a result of 22% below normal rainfall, the food-grains production in 2009-10 had dropped to around 218.11 million tonnes, almost 7% less than the previous year. in India,Monsoon,IMD,El Nino,agriculture ministry

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