Having had an unprecedented run in stabilizing Afghanistan for the past decade, India's role in keeping Afghanistan safe from the Taliban will be crucial not only for the region, but also for New Delhi's own security.
National Security Advisor (NSA) Shivshankar Menon will be in Kabul for a day on Tuesday, where he will meet President Hamid Karzai and other Afghan government officials, and also engage with a cross-section of emerging leaders in that country.
The withdrawal timetable, intersecting with the election schedule in Afghanistan, has made the transition even more complex. Of particular importance to India is who the next generation of leaders in Afghanistan would be. That would be the key in determining whether Afghanistan will fight for a more stable future, or whether it will dissolve into civil war.
India has made massive investment in Afghanistan, mainly in economic and infrastructure sectors. New Delhi is stepping up its security presence in the country, but not fast enough, according to the Afghan government. India's security presence is likely to stop short of sending troops to the country, which could be one of the reasons why Karzai, deeply apprehensive about his survival, is trying to stitch up partnership pacts with his neighbours.
In a recent trilateral summit with Pakistan and the UK, Karzai promised to ink a similar agreement with Pakistan within six months.
What will Karzai's role be after the elections? India is trying to preserve and promote the central role for the Afghan government. This holds the key, because the Western countries — in their rush to secure some kind of reconciliation — have ended up making the Afghan government one of the factions, locked in bloody feuds, in the war-torn nation. That has only heightened Karzai's feeling of insecurity.
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